This part has an evaluation of the outcomes and
limitations of the approaches and considers the topics of: policies for water related hazards (1), and the
future of the Netherlands (2). The next part will contain two more topics.
1) First of all, in the
Netherlands the policies and responsibilities for flood measures, both oceanic
and fluvial, are well developed on a national level, but measures against the
other increasingly alarming climate hazards of heat, drought, and heavy precipitation
are much less developed. Measures against cascading events, involving e.g.
health risks, are similarly less developed. This is proven by the detailed
organizational charts and responsibilities for water quantity and quality from
a European to a municipal level, which does not yet find its equal for the
other hazards. A highlighted example is a new stress test for water quality,
which does not get the same attention as water quantity, developed by the
Foundation for applied research for water management (STOWA))[i]. A
prudent approach would be to expand the current Delta Plan Spatial Adaptation
to include these hazards and cascading impacts, rather than reinvent the wheel
for each of these hazards. This would prevent duplicating governance networks
and finance models for each separate hazard and allow for the streamlined
implementation of measures. A similar challenge lies in international
cooperation. This equally requires improvement, but due to the different nature
of laws and policies in other neighboring countries, it is less easy to copy
existing policies and organizational cooperation structures. Europe has seen an
increase of over 60% of extreme weather events in the last three decades[ii].
From 2018, the Netherlands, western Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg suffered
from heatwaves and droughts, which was followed by a flood in 2021 with over 34
billion euros in damages[iii]
and over 240 deaths[iv].
These type of the events, and the fact that the Netherlands is downstream of
four rivers starting over a thousand kilometers abroad, traveling through four
countries with each their own water management policies before it arrives at
our borders, mean that greater cooperation of transboundary river basin
management is required, which is why the Dutch Ministry of Water and
Infrastructure have launched a new transboundary program to strengthen
scientific and institutional collaboration and increasing collaborative
capacity for floods and droughts. We already see this trend in response to the
2021 floods in Limburg and neighboring countries, when local stress tests were
not sufficient to anticipate or respond to a regional level event, and now
higher level stress tests are being developed[v]. On
a more local level, the regional Dutch and German water boards are also
cooperating on flood safety, prevention, drought, and water quality[vi].
On a larger scale, new policies will need to make a choice of which trend to
follow for the possible future, including green infrastructure, and also need
to address how to inform the Dutch public of the issues the country faces and
why these decisions are being made.
2) The future of climate in the
Netherlands is difficult to predict, but some trends will lead to inevitable
impacts requiring the need for adaptive policies. Combined annual weather
damages (see figure below) are heavily dependent on the number of storms
hitting the country, and the subsequent deaths and number of cars subjected to
water damage.
Figure:
Annual weather damages in the Netherlands (based on Association of Insurers[vii])
While the current knowledge
indicates the measures in the Delta program are sufficient until 2050, much
like heat records, the sea level rise might also accelerate faster than
anticipated. To address this for now hypothetical case, four major pathways[viii]
are identified in how to deal with the most major challenges facing the West of
the country. Up to 2050 about 600 billion euro worth of infrastructure
investments are planned in the flood prone areas, with a life time expectation
of 50-100 years, making it worthwhile to develop potential pathways of land use
planning. The main consequences of sea level rise are not merely the threat to
low lying land, but equally to drinking water access and agriculture, due to
salt water intrusion. Based on the IPCC strategies of retreat, accommodate, and
protect, the four scenarios for the Netherlands are illustrated in the image
below. Protect means to conserve the current land use as much as possible,
which requires increasing protective measures. It can be either to close off
the connection to the ocean completely in the form of sluices, dams, and locks.
It could also have a continuous open connection to the ocean, requiring all
river harbors and levees inland to be strengthened. It also means inland waters
become increasingly salinized. The third option of accommodate mirrors the
living with water concept. This could take the form of locally raised grounds
and ring levees. Due to increased flooding, millions of lives and livelihoods
will be affected. Finally, in the option advance the coastline is extended into
the ocean. This creates a new line of defense and would allow for the
continuation of business as usual. It would allow for new land use development,
but would cost 10-20 billion square meters of sand to create new land and have
devastation ecological impacts.
Figure:
Four possible scenarios for adapting to sea level rise in the province Zeeland[ix]
The main issue facing adaptation
is that development and implementation of these types of policies takes
decades, which might not be sufficient time to prepare for the changes
experienced. It also calls for reserving areas that are also used for implementing
plans with similar priorities: energy transition, housing, and infrastructure.
This requires more coordination on a national level between ministries to align
planning decades into the future.
The problem with future
uncertainties is that these predicted worst case weather scenarios could happen
in 2100, a2050, or tomorrow. While there is a prioritization to address the
worst and most likely scenarios first, it still leaves much of the country
insufficiently prepared, especially as the population still expects the
government to prepare and manage everything.
[i]
https://www.stowa.nl/sites/default/files/assets/PUBLICATIES/Publicaties%202023/STOWA-2023-38-Handreiking-stresstest-waterkwaliteit.pdf
[ii]
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816223004691
[iii]
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818124001887
[vi] https://www.vechtstromen.nl/zoeken/@43020/gesprek-duitse/
[vii]
https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6360497/280-miljoen-euro-aan-weerschade-in-2024-veel-minder-dan-de-jaren-ervoor.html
[viii]
Citation: van Alphen, J.; Haasnoot, M.; Diermanse, F. Uncertain Accelerated
Sea-Level Rise, potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The
Netherlands. Water 2022, 14, 1527. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527
[ix] DOI:
10.35248/2473-3350.24.27.640
